sunsnow sunday

The Chinese government has threatened broad economic measures against American military contractors unless $6.4b in U.S. arms deals with Taiwan are canceled immediately. U.S. defense contractors including Boeing, Lockheed Martin and Raytheon will face Chinese retaliation in other business areas in a tangible expose' of China's growing power.

“Such sales contribute to maintaining security and stability across the Taiwan Strait,” said Laura Tischler, a State Department spokeswoman.

Chinese foreign minister Yang Jiechi said, The US should “truly respect China’s core interests and major concerns, and immediately rescind the mistaken decision ... in order to avoid damaging broader China-US relations.”
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Hank Paulson has accused Russia of propositioning China to sell Fannie and Freddie Mac bonds in late 2008 to induce a U.S. government bail out. The former U.S. Treasury secretary wrote “Russian officials had made a top-level approach to the Chinese, suggesting that together they might sell big chunks of their GSE (government sponsored enterprise) holdings to force the US to use its emergency authorities to prop up these companies,” in his recently published memoir, On the Brink.

The reported proposition was declined by the Chinese in the time surrounding the Russian-Georgian conflict.
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Pakistani media has reported that Hakimullah Mehsud has been killed "sometime in the last two weeks" by U.S. drone strike. Tehrik-e-Taliban spokesmen have denied the claims but have not provided video evidence that the group's leader is alive.

U.S. C.I.A. has increase drone activity following the attack on their Khost outpost.

I called this btw. wooop.
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Slate.com slide show of the Davos Economic Forum sessions and participants is here.

Turkey has signalled approval for Afghan government plans to reconcile with mid and low-level Taliban fighters through jobs and cash. The plan is reminiscent of the "Sunni Awakening" or "Sons of Iraq", where Sunni insurgents were paid to halt their insurgency and work with the government to provide security within their own communities.

(Here is an statistical update on the integration of the SOI from the Long War Blog.)

The statement came from a meeting in Istanbul between Afghan officials and various regional powers. The meeting included China's foreign minister, Iran's vice-president, Russia's deputy foreign minister, Britain's foreign minister and the deputy to U.S. special envoy Richard Holbrooke. Officials from Tajikistan, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, NATO and the European Union were also present.

High ranking officials from approximately 60 countries are slated to convene on Thursday in London to coordinate strategy and fortify support for Afghanistan.

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Afghan intelligence report has tied the Haqqani network, based in Pakistan, to the massive guerrilla attack on Kabul on January 18th. This announcement follows last week's statements by Secretary Gates urging Pakistan to do more to contain the Haqqani network.

The Haqqani network was one of the main recipients of foreign weapons and monies during the Soviet-Afghan war.

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France is now very close to approving a partial ban on Islamic veils following a report by parliamentary committee. The report states, "The wearing of the full veil is a challenge to our republic. This is unacceptable. We must condemn this excess."

The committee's near 200-page report has proposed a ban in hospitals, schools, government offices and on public transport.

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Here is a great photo slideshow of the Sri Lankan election.

flares

Both General Stanley McChrystal and Secretary of Defense Robert Gates have hinted in the last week at the possibility of political negotiations with the Taliban. Both senior military leaders have outlined plans to co-opt middle and low ranking Taliban fighters with jobs and cash payments.

Dexter Filkins' op-ed in today's NYT quotes a Taliban spokesperson saying, “Nobody from the Taliban side is ready to make any kind of deal. The world community and the international forces are trying to buy the Taliban, and that is why we are showing that we are not for sale.”

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Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has shut down a television station for failing to broadcast one of his state speeches in its entirety. Chávez's popularity has slipped as the oil-rich country grapples with energy shortages, rising inflation and rampant crime, worrying officials as they prepare for parliamentary elections later this year.

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Here is a run-down of contributions to Scott Brown before and after his electoral victory.

you ain't got no job. . .

The Senate Foreign Relations Committee has released a report identifying a number of American citizens who converted to Islam while in US prison, then moved to Yemen, married local women and subsequently"[fell] off the map". According to the report, as many as 36 ex-convicts have traveled to Yemen for "language training" in the last year, and as many as 10 of those are believed to be working with al-Qaeda.


The text of the report is located here. For context, check out this Wapo article with good sound bites from admin and congressional staffers.



The report states, "U.S. officials said they are on heightened alert because of the potential threat from extremists carrying American passports and the related challenges involved in detecting and stopping homegrown operatives."

An additional concern, it says, "is a group of nearly 10 non-Yemeni Americans who traveled to Yemen, converted to Islam, became fundamentalists, and married Yemeni women so they could remain in the country." One U.S. official, it reports, described them as "blond-haired, blue-eyed types" who "fit a profile of Americans whom al-Qaeda has sought to recruit over the past several years."
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Egypt's largest opposition group to Pres. Mubarak, the Muslim Brotherhood, has named a new leader. Muhammad Badie was selected by the members of MB's consultative council following the resignation of Muhammad Akef.

The english language Muslim Brotherhood website is located here.


Akef, a more moderate voice within the organization, resigned after butting heads with the conservative factions of the Brotherhood. Badie represents a more conservative faction of the MB and, interestingly, was incarcerated with Sayyid Qutb back in the 60's. Qutb is one of the most influential Islamic fundamentalists and provides ideological foundations for al-Qaeda.



Definitely check out Qutb's biography above. He traveled to America as a young man in the 1920's and his experiences forged his fire-brand interpretation of Islam. Really a fascinating man.
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Secretary Gates was in Pakistan yesterday reaffirming the Administration's commitment to working with the Pakistani government and military in efforts to control their lawless border with Afghanistan.

The Secretary was in India on Tuesday.

gone silver

Here is the highlight of my weekend- the first piece of the FT's in-depth exploration of the BRIC's (Brazil, Russia, India and China). This article by Alan Beattie tracks individually unique trajectories toward economic development and what each country's rise means for the existing balance.


Beattie asks, "So as the world emerges from recession, is this a transformational moment when the centre of gravity in the global economy and its governance decisively shifts? Is this a pivot point such as the second world war, where the confident, innovative US muscled aside the weakened, debt-laden economies of Europe and remade the global financial architecture? And, most immediately, are Bric consumers up to the task of rebalancing the world economy by supplanting their acquisitive American counterparts?

"The most likely answer is: not yet."
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Indonesia has erected a statue of Barack Obama to mixed reviews from the public.


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The Obama administration and congressional Democrats have reached a deal to create an independent budget commission to manage the behemoth federal entitlements programs-Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security. The agreement was reached during a Tuesday night meeting between the President, Orszag, Reid, Pelosi and Hoyer.
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A spokeperson for the Pakistani Taliban has said that the group's leader, Hakimullah Mehsud, is alive and well following a drone strike on militant training camp in North Waziristan. Baitullah Mehsud, the former leader of the Pakistani Taliban, was killed in US drone strike last summer, yet confirmation of his death took two weeks.

The Taliban spokesperson said that Hakimullah Mehsud was in the area of the strike until very recently,"But he had left the place already when the drone attack took place. He is alive and completely safe," Taliban spokesman Azam Tariq told the AFP news agency by telephone.

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ROBERT ALBERTSON, CHIEF STRATEGIST AT SANDLER O'NEILL, NEW YORK
"It throws some sand into the gears. It's one more thing dragging on the sector, but it's spread over 10 years, so it's not so consequential. It's petty theft from bank balance sheets."

More quotes from financial analysts on the Obama Administration's levy on bank bonuses are here. Amazing (in what way is open for interpretation).

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Here former Secretary of State Madeline Albright critiques President Obama's approach to Afghanistan, Pakistan and the threat of Islamic extremism.

fail.

People of Earth:

In the last few days, I’ve been getting a lot of sympathy calls, and I want to start by making it clear that no one should waste a second feeling sorry for me. For 17 years, I’ve been getting paid to do what I love most and, in a world with real problems, I’ve been absurdly lucky. That said, I’ve been suddenly put in a very public predicament and my bosses are demanding an immediate decision.

Six years ago, I signed a contract with NBC to take over “The Tonight Show” in June of 2009. Like a lot of us, I grew up watching Johnny Carson every night and the chance to one day sit in that chair has meant everything to me. I worked long and hard to get that opportunity, passed up far more lucrative offers, and since 2004, I have spent literally hundreds of hours thinking of ways to extend the franchise long into the future. It was my mistaken belief that, like my predecessor, I would have the benefit of some time and, just as important, some degree of ratings support from the prime-time schedule. Building a lasting audience at 11:30 is impossible without both.

But sadly, we were never given that chance. After only seven months, with my “Tonight Show” in its infancy, NBC has decided to react to their terrible difficulties in prime time by making a change in their long-established late night schedule.

Last Thursday, NBC executives told me they intended to move the “Tonight Show” to 12:05 to accommodate the “Jay Leno Show” at 11:35. For 60 years, the “Tonight Show” has aired immediately following the late local news. I sincerely believe that delaying the “Tonight Show” into the next day to accommodate another comedy program will seriously damage what I consider to be the greatest franchise in the history of broadcasting. The “Tonight Show” at 12:05 simply isn’t the “Tonight Show.” Also, if I accept this move I will be knocking the “Late Night” show, which I inherited from David Letterman and passed on to Jimmy Fallon, out of its long-held time slot. That would hurt the other NBC franchise that I love, and it would be unfair to Jimmy.

So it has come to this: I cannot express in words how much I enjoy hosting this program and what an enormous personal disappointment it is for me to consider losing it. My staff and I have worked unbelievably hard, and we are very proud of our contribution to the legacy of “The Tonight Show.” But I cannot participate in what I honestly believe is its destruction. Some people will make the argument that with DVRs and the Internet, a time slot doesn’t matter. But with the “Tonight Show,” I believe nothing could matter more.

There has been speculation about my going to another network but, to set the record straight, I currently have no other offer and honestly have no idea what happens next. My hope is that NBC and I can resolve this quickly so that my staff, crew, and I can do a show we can be proud of, for a company that values our work.

Have a great day and, for the record, I am truly sorry about my hair; it’s always been that way.

Yours,

Conan

focus: imperium

Today the leaders of JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs journeyed to Capitol Hill to answer questions before the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission. Here is a short round-up of the best questions from the three-hour grilling:

"If, as the crisis showed, the overleveraging of financial institutions was one of the contributing factors in the crisis, why are you opposed to a strict cap on the leverage (debt) a financial institution can take on?"

"Given the huge risks you have taken during the crisis, should investment banking and retail banking co-exist in the same institution? Why shouldn't proprietary trading-bets with a bank's own money- be outlawed?"

You may link the FCIC's website here. They have full transcripts of all hearings and some cool reports and figures and other good stuff. Cha cha!!

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Al-Qaeda has been linked to an international network of private jets used to transport drugs and weapons according to a Homeland Security report viewed by Rueters. The covert fleet consists of twin-engine, executive jets and Boeing 727's that ferry illicit cargo from South America to Africa en route to Europe. Since 2006, 10 aircraft have been discovered using a specific flight route attributed to al-Qaeda trafficking. The report indicates that the planes were discovered purely by chance and warns that the actual number of aircraft is much larger.

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2009 witnessed the most Afghan civilian causalities since the US toppled the Taliban government in late 2001. 2,412 civilians were killed in "war-related violence" according to a report by the UN Assistance Mission for Afghanistan. 70% of fatalities were caused by Taliban attacks while 25% were caused by pro-government forces. There has been a 28% reduction in deaths by the International Security Assistance Forces since 2008.

A pdf of the UN Assistance Mission's full report is available here.

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The authorities are having trouble deporting a radical Jamaican-born Muslim cleric because international airlines have refused to take him and Tanzania refused Kenya’s attempt to send him there, officials said Tuesday. The cleric, Abdullah el-Faisal, who officials say may have inspired the Nigerian man accused of trying to bomb an American airliner last month, had entered Kenya from Tanzania. “We have no intention of allowing him to enter into our country,” Tanzania’s Home Affairs minister, Lawrence Masha, said, saying no formal request had been made.

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Asian stock markets have fallen upon the news that China will increase capital requirements for its banks. Investors and governments around the world percieve a general tightening in Chinese fiscal stimulus as the country appears to the be leading the way upwards, out of last year's recession.

Massoud Ali Mohammadi, an Iranian nuclear scientist at Tehran University, has been killed by explosives planted in a motorcycle outside of his house. It remains unclear what role Mr. Mohammadi played in Iran's clandestine nuclear weapons program.

An Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson attributed the rare terrorist attack to "Zionist elements and US mercenaries.”


An official at Tehran’s governor-general office told ISNA, the student news agency, that the involvement of Mujahedin Khalgh Organisation, an exiled armed opposition group which has a record of similar killings, was “one of the possibilities”.

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The US trade deficit in November was wider than expected according to US Commerce Department Data. Recovering US businesses have led the charge of the purchase of foreign goods, expanding the gap by 9.7% from October. In the short term, economist predict a moderation in trade imbalance with the dollar falling more than 12% and foreign companies picking up as well.

The International Monetary Fund has said it will probably raise its estimate for 2010 world growth from 3.1 percent.

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The robust global growth has governments and businesses concerned that central banks will soon raise interest rates to cool the potential for inflation. So far this month more than $75b has been raised, the majority by financial institutions still aiming to repair their fiscal positions after last year's recession.

Some economists are fearing a "double-dip" recession as global demand has the potential to recede in the wake of decreasing central government fiscal stimulus.

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China’s central bank sold bills at a higher yield for the second time in a week, increasing the likelihood that policy makers there will raise the benchmark interest rate in the first half of the year. It also raised the proportion of deposits that banks must set aside as reserves by 50 basis points from Jan. 18. The existing capital requirement levels are 15.5 percent for big banks and 13.5 percent for smaller ones.

Israel has announced it will construct a fence along its border with Egypt to curb the flow of people, goods and arms. The fence will not stretch the entirety of the border, which is mostly uninhabited desert, but will concentrate on the densly populated areas near the Gaza strip.

PM Netanyahu said, “We cannot let tens of thousands of illegal workers infiltrate and inundate our country.”


Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit said "This issue does not concern us at all. Israel is building something on its own soil and there is no link between that security fence and our construction along the border with Gaza."


Writing in Yedioth Ahronoth, the Israeli daily, Eitan Haber argued on Monday that Israel would soon be “an entire state living behind fences, surrounded on all sides by an ocean of enemies“.
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The recent attack upon the CIA forward operating base last week has illuminated a murky pillar of the US counterinsurgency strategy in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

James Kitfield of the National Journal considers the moral and legal foundations of the Obama administration's significant increase of drone strikes within Pakistan in the last year.


Dawn.com, an english language Pakistani publication, considers the unintented consequences of drone strikes on the Pakistani tribal populations. According to this article, inhabitants of local Waziristan " said families lived in fear over the prospect of a Hellfire missile annihilating their home without warning."


Today Gen. David Patreus of US Central Command was interviewed by CNN's Christiane Amanpour. Here is a pertinant exerpt from the full transcript:



AMANPOUR:
Well, I ask you this because a new video has emerged showing the Jordanian Al Qaida double agent, with Baitullah Mehsud's brother, essentially saying why he blew up himself in that CIA base in Afghanistan. And it seemed to have quite a lot to do with the drone attacks. Does that concern you?



PETRAEUS: Well, first of all, Baitullah Mehsud and his organization carried out horrific attacks inside Pakistan, and that is what I think should concern the Pakistanis, as certainly it concerns us.

AMANPOUR: But how much of a concern for you is the backlash against those drone attacks?


PETRAEUS: Well, let me talk about it in a general context, if I could. And that is in the conduct of any campaign, particularly a counterinsurgency campaign, there has to be enormous effort in trying to minimize the loss of innocent civilian life, to minimize collateral damage. And that does, indeed, characterize our campaigns.


General McChrystal -- among the number of initiatives that he has undertaken has been to issue counterinsurgency guidance that gets right at that issue and then has been quite -- really very, very determined in implementing that, as well. There will be loss of innocent life in war, but we have got to make sure that we minimize it and that we try to avoid it just about at all costs.


The Long War Journal is a blog that accounts for all US drone strikes in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The site provides in depth analysis of drone strike frequency, lethality, civilian casualities, location plus in depth analytic essays.


Finally, a MUST READ NYT op-ed by Boris Gromov, governor of the Moscow region and commander of the 40th Soviet Army in Afghanistan during the 1980's and Dmitry Rogozin, Russia’s ambassador to NATO.

They write, "In fact, we were the first to defend Western civilization against the attacks of Muslim fanatics. No one thanked us." Sheer brilliance!!

US special envoy to the Middle East George Mitchell has told Charlie Rose the US may withdraw loan guarantees to pressure Israel on its continued building of settlements.

Israeli Finance Minister Yuval Steinitz discounted Mitchell's pointed words on Sunday. He said "Only a few months ago we reached an agreement with the U.S. Department of the Treasury and Department of State on the loan guarantees for 2010 and 2011. There were no conditions attached. Israel has made and continues to make every effort, including difficult gestures, to renew the negotiations. We haven't received any indication that the guarantees will be used to pressure us."
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Sheikh Issa bin Zayed al-Nahayan, the brother of UAE president and Abu Dhabi emir Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed al-Nahayan has been acquitted of charges of torture.

Defense attorney Habib al-Mulla said, "The court acquitted Sheikh Issa after establishing he was not responsible [for torture]."

"The court accepted our defence that the Sheikh was under the influence of drugs [medicine] that left him unaware of his actions."

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International Aid organizations have said that approximately 140 people have been killed in ethnic clashes in southern Sudan.

The deaths occured when members of the Nuer tribe attacked Dinka cattle hearders and captured thousands of animals. In 2009, southern Sudan saw more deaths than did Darfur and analysts worry the region is headed for a return to civil war.

Below, al-Jazeera's Muhamad Vall highlights the impact of the decades-long drought on northern Sudan.




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The FT's John Authers believes Chinese authorities will not appreciate the remnimbi in the short to midterm due to the currencies relative position against the dollar, euro, won and real. The concerted devaluation of those currencies means the RMB is as expensive as it has ever been, which has decreased the competive advantage enjoyed by Chinese export manufacturers.




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US jobs data will be released tomorrow and will indicate a further stabilization in the labor market. New claims data, which correlates strongly with actual unemployment, dropped for the 18th straight week to 450,250- a level which indicates labor market stability.
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Iraq and Iran have begun talks concerning an inactive oil well along their border. Last month, a small group of Iranian troops took control of the disputed well and were strongly rebuffed by the Iraqi government which swore to hold its ground. The dispute comes at an untimely juncture, as international oil companies continue to bid on lucrative field contracts throughout the country.

foghorn longhorn

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) will convene a meeting of central bankers to address a return to "aggressive behavior the prevailed during the pre-crisis period." Chief Executives from Blackrock, Citigroup and Wells Fargo have accepted the central banks invitation and will meet Basel over the weekend. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase declined to attend.

According to a US Federal Reserve official, "These meetings are an attempt to bring a real world perspective to the deliberations of the wise men of the world."
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Here is Fahreed Zakaria discussing the current status, and likely future, of US homeland security in the wake of the Christmas day attack.
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Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak has received dozens of death threats from Israeli settlers in the West Bank who believe they will be forced to leave their homes in pursuit of peace. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has said he will not resume talks with Israel without a complete settlement freeze.

On January 5th four apartment buildings were approved by Israel's Jerusalem municipality.

bones! are you alright!?!?

A group of senior Israeli soldiers has canceled a trip to Britain in fear of arrest for alleged war crimes. The group had been invited by the British military but sought guarantee from London that they would not be detained. The soldiers received no such guarantee and subsequently canceled the trip altogether.

The incident has further heightened tensions between the two countries following the issuance of an arrest warrant for Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni last month.

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Chairman Orin Kramer of the New Jersey public pension has issued a sobering assessment of shortfalls within the US public pension system. The report highlights the controversy over which accounting practices are best for determining the actual worth and solvency of public pensions in the "out years".

When state governments value their pension's worth they use a process known as "smoothing" which uses an average value over a certain interval of time. Using this method US pension system insolvency has been calculated to range from $400b-500b. Mr. Kramer's report calculates pension asset values using a "mark-to-market" standard which uses an equity's market value at a particular time. This technique predicts public pension programs will be approximately $2 trillion in the hole.

Here is an interactive demonstration of international public and private pension shortfalls.
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The NYT's Andrew Martin teams with PBS' Frontline in a story of Americans and their credit cards. A stunning investigation of the gargantuan American consumer loan industry. Yee-haw!!!
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Pakistani Taliban have destroyed 6 shrines and desecrated the grave of the spiritual leader of the Stori Khel tribe. The attacks are in response to the tribe's "laskar" or local militia that has been resisting the militants for a month.

ole smokey fountains

Three U.S. evangelical preachers are on the defensive after a three day speaking tour in Uganda last March. Less than a month after the Americans described the gay community as an "evil institution" Ugandan politicians introduced the "Anti-Homosexulaty Act of 2009" which would mandate the hanging of homosexuals.

Operative Clause 3.(2): "A person who commits the offence of aggravated homosexuality shall be liable on conviction to suffer death."
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Five Blackwater employees been cleared of the murder of 14 unarmed civilians in a crowded Baghdad plaza two years ago. The judge dismissed all charges, saying that prosecuters misused statements made by the shooters immediately following the incident.

A sixth Blackwater employee has already pleaded guilty. The Iraqi government has stated that it will pursue renewed charges against the 5 men because it believes the men committed a "serious crime" against the people of Iraq.
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Members of the Israeli Defense Force have shot and killed six Palestinians over the weekend. Three of the killed were trying to cross from the West Bank into Israel and three others were killed in a firefight during an attempted arrest. Israeli soldiers were serving an arrest warrant in the West Bank city of Nablus following the shooting death of an Israeli settler last Thursday.